Asm. George Alvarez
George Alvarez represents AD-78, a heavily Democratic district carrying a D+62 registration lean, where he won his most recent 2024 general election with 73.5% of the vote against John Santiago, a margin of 47.0 points — a narrower result than the district's longer-term baseline under predecessor Jose Rivera, who routinely posted margins exceeding 75 points. Under all modeled electoral scenarios, Alvarez is rated Safe D for 2026, though the model notes limited contested election data and relies primarily on registration lean as its signal. The district is centered in a dense urban context with a 70.3% Hispanic population, a 30.3% poverty rate, a median household income of $42,572, and an exceptionally low homeownership rate of 8.1%, with registered Democrats comprising 69.2% of voters. In the 2025 session, Alvarez sponsored 31 bills with the largest concentrations in Education (3 bills) and a spread across Labor, Social Services, Tax, Real Property Tax, Public Authorities, Vehicle and Traffic, and Executive law (2 bills each); no committee chairmanship is listed in the brief, and no lobbying sector or committee overlap data is included.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-78
Base lean: D+71
- Limited contested election data — registration lean used as primary signal
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+71). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-78
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | George A. Alvarez 73.5% (17,254) | John Santiago 26.5% (6,229) | 47.0pts |
| 2022 | George A. Alvarez 80.9% (9,059) | Michael J. Dister 19.1% (2,140) | 61.8pts |
| 2020 | Jose Rivera 87.9% (25,920) | Michael Dister 12.1% (3,560) | 75.8pts |
| 2018 | Jose Rivera 93.4% (17,212) | Michael E. Walters 6.6% (1,209) | 86.8pts |
| 2016 | Jose Rivera 93.4% (21,915) | Luana G. Malavolta 5.0% (1,172) | 88.4pts |
| 2014 | Jose Rivera 89.4% (6,965) | Fernando P. Tirado 10.6% (828) | 78.8pts |
| 2012 | Jose Rivera 94.0% (20,241) | Luana G. Malavolta 4.6% (990) | 89.4pts |
| 2010 | Jose Rivera 90.3% (9,189) | William J. Sullivan 9.7% (990) | 80.6pts |
| 2008 | Jose Rivera 90.6% (18,452) | Jose А. Torres 8.3% (1,701) | 82.3pts |
| 2006 | Jose Rivera 89.7% (8,421) | William J. Sullivan 10.3% (970) | 79.4pts |
| 2004 | Jose Rivera 98.1% (16,281) | Richard Retcho 1.9% (315) | 96.2pts |
| 2002 | Jose Rivera 84.2% (7,061) | Luana Malavolta 15.8% (1,322) | 68.4pts |
| 2000 | Jose Rivera 95.0% (15,655) | Paul Dzung-Do 4.2% (689) | 90.8pts |
| 1998 | Roberto Ramirez 100.0% (10,566) | Uncontested | — |
| 1996 | Roberto Ramirez 95.3% (14,507) | Paul Dzung-Do 4.7% (718) | 90.6pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Democratic) | Jose Rivera 84.7% (5,803) | Francisco A. Spies 15.3% (1,049) | 69.4pts |
| 2016 (Democratic) | Jose Rivera 65.4% (2,236) | Ischia J. Bravo 34.6% (1,185) | 30.8pts |
| 2014 (Democratic) | Jose Rivera 77.8% (2,375) | Fernando P. Tirado 22.2% (677) | 55.6pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 78 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.