Asm. Karl Brabenec
Karl Brabenec (R) represents AD-98, a narrowly Republican district with a R+2 partisan lean and a voter registration breakdown of 33.9% Republican, 32.2% Democrat, and 28.4% Independent; he ran uncontested in 2024 and carries a base electoral lean of R+18, rated Safe R under neutral and favorable conditions. The district is predominantly suburban and homeowner-dominated, with a 76.0% homeownership rate, a median household income of $106,541, and a racial composition that is 74.2% white, 14.3% Hispanic, and 6.4% Black. Brabenec, first elected in 2015 following an exceptionally narrow 0.1-point margin in 2014, has sponsored 74 bills in the 2025 session, with his heaviest focus on Vehicle and Traffic (8 bills), Tax (5 bills), and parallel concentrations in Education, Penal, Civil Service, General Municipal, Real Property Tax, and Real Property Taxation (3–4 bills each). No committee chairmanship or lobbying sector data is identified in this brief.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-98
Base lean: R+18
- Ran uncontested in most recent election
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+18). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-98
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Karl A. Brabenec 100.0% (42,063) | Uncontested | — |
| 2022 | Karl A. Brabenec 63.9% (30,178) | Bruce M. Levine 36.1% (17,013) | 27.8pts |
| 2020 | Karl A. Brabenec 100.0% (41,502) | Uncontested | — |
| 2018 | Karl A. Brabenec 62.7% (24,985) | Scott Martens 37.3% (14,834) | 25.4pts |
| 2016 | Karl Brabenec 59.4% (29,105) | Aron B. Wieder 40.6% (19,883) | 18.8pts |
| 2014 | Karl A. Brabenec 37.0% (12,943) | Elisa A. Tutini 36.9% (12,906) | ⚡ 0.1pts |
| 2012 | Ann G. Rabbitt 55.5% (25,024) | Gerard T. McQuade, Jr. 44.5% (20,064) | 11.0pts |
| 2010 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (25,299) | Uncontested | — |
| 2008 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (35,630) | Uncontested | — |
| 2006 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (22,625) | Uncontested | — |
| 2004 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (31,108) | Uncontested | — |
| 2003 | Aileen M. Gunther 63.9% (20,207) | Alan J. Sorensen 36.1% (11,399) | 27.8pts |
| 2002 | Jacob E. Gunther, III 66.3% (19,527) | William A. Brenner 30.2% (8,888) | 36.1pts |
| 2000 | Jacob E. Gunther, III 68.8% (28,849) | William A. Brenner 29.2% (12,251) | 39.6pts |
| 1998 | Jacob E. Gunther, III 94.3% (22,563) | Gerald W. Mc Murrer 5.7% (1,364) | 88.6pts |
| 1996 | Jacob E. Gunther, III 94.7% (27,447) | Gerald W. McMurrer 5.3% (1,532) | 89.4pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 (Republican) | Karl Brabenec 57.7% (2,766) | John N. Allegro 42.3% (2,027) | 15.4pts |
| 2016 (Democratic) | Aron B. Wieder 58.8% (2,325) | Krystal Z. Serrano 41.2% (1,632) | 17.6pts |
| 2016 (Independence) | Aron B. Wieder 80.4% (378) | Karl Brabenec 19.6% (92) | 60.8pts |
| 2016 (Conservative) | Aron B. Wieder 60.5% (290) | Karl Brabenec 31.3% (150) | 29.2pts |
| 2016 (Green) | Aron B. Wieder GRE 61.4% (35) | Krystal Z. Serrano GRE 26.3% (15) | 35.1pts |
| 2016 (Reform) | Aron B. Wieder 69.2% (9) | Karl Brabenec 30.8% (4) | 38.4pts |
| 2016 (Women's Equality) | Aron B. Weider 100.0% (4) | Krystal Z. Serrano 0.0% (0) | — |
| 2014 (Republican) | Karl A. Brabenec 44.2% (1,828) | Daniel G. Castricone 35.5% (1,467) | ⚡ 8.7pts |
| 2014 (Democratic) | Elisa A. Tutini 35.6% (1,189) | Aron B. Wieder 33.8% (1,128) | ⚡ 1.8pts |
| 2014 (Conservative) | Karl A. Brabenec 55.4% (164) | Daniel G. Castricone 44.6% (132) | 10.8pts |
| 2012 (Democratic) | Gerard T. McQuade, Jr. 47.9% (1,561) | Myrna K. Kemnitz 28.5% (929) | 19.4pts |
| 2012 (Conservative) | Ann G. Rabbitt 48.2% (176) | Gerard T. McQuade, Jr. 36.2% (132) | 12.0pts |
| 2000 (Green) | William A. Brenner 83.3% (10) | Bob Evans 16.7% (2) | 66.6pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 98 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.