Asm. Keith Brown
Keith Brown (R) represents AD-12, a nominally Democratic-leaning district (D+2 by registration, with Democrats at 32.7% and Republicans at 31.1%) that nonetheless trends Republican in practice — Brown has carried it by 14.2 points in 2024 and 15.0 points in 2022 after a competitive 3.2-point win in 2020. The district is a high-income, heavily white-collar suburban Long Island constituency with a median household income of $157,758, an 89.4% homeownership rate, and 51.8% of residents holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Under a neutral electoral environment, the 2026 outlook models as Lean R, though a favorable Democratic environment would reduce the race to a Toss-up. Brown sponsored 120 bills in the 2025 session, with Education (15), Executive (13), Environmental Conservation (8), and Public Health (8) constituting his heaviest areas of legislative focus, alongside smaller concentrations in General Business, Election, Vehicle and Traffic, and Cannabis.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support AI
No recorded floor speeches in support found in our transcript archive for this member.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition AI
No recorded floor speeches in opposition found in our transcript archive for this member.
Electoral History AD-12
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Keith Brown 57.1% (38,808) | Thomas J. Cox 42.9% (29,137) | 14.2pts |
| 2022 | Keith Brown 57.5% (30,390) | Cooper Macco 42.5% (22,428) | 15.0pts |
| 2020 | Keith Brown 51.6% (35,190) | Michael A. Marcantonio 48.4% (33,027) | ⚡ 3.2pts |
| 2018 | Andrew P. Raia 55.4% (27,853) | Avrum J. Rosen 44.6% (22,416) | 10.8pts |
| 2016 | Andrew P. Raia 64.8% (39,021) | Spencer B. Rumsey 35.2% (21,243) | 29.6pts |
| 2014 | Andrew P. Raia 100.0% (24,210) | Uncontested | — |
| 2012 | Andrew P. Raia 100.0% (38,726) | Uncontested | — |
| 2010 | Joseph S. Saladino 75.9% (28,607) | Kevin C. Gorman 24.1% (9,103) | 51.8pts |
| 2008 | Joseph S. Saladino 67.9% (38,800) | Keith А. Scalia 32.1% (18,307) | 35.8pts |
| 2006 | Joseph S. Saladino 66.7% (24,180) | Craig S. Heller 33.3% (12,046) | 33.4pts |
| 2004 | Joseph S. Saladino 68.6% (38,745) | William R. Funk 31.4% (17,716) | 37.2pts |
| 2002 | Steven L. Labriola 75.5% (25,757) | Stanley B. Bergman 24.1% (8,220) | 51.4pts |
| 2000 | Steven L. Labriola 68.9% (32,148) | John A. Tartaglia 31.1% (14,544) | 37.8pts |
| 1998 | Steven L. Labriola 74.0% (25,049) | Benjamin Podgor 25.4% (8,587) | 48.6pts |
| 1996 | Steven L. Labriola 63.1% (27,249) | Carl Lowe 36.1% (15,593) | 27.0pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-12
Base lean: R+8
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+8). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 6/18/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 12 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.