Asm. Michael Cashman
AD-115 represents one of the most closely contested seats in the chamber: Michael Cashman, a Democrat first elected in 2025, won his initial race by just 4.6 points over Republican Brent M. Davison (52.3% to 47.7%), and the district carries a base lean of only D+9 with a vulnerability rating that slides to Lean D under a favorable Republican environment. The district is nearly perfectly split by registration — 33.6% Democrat, 33.0% Republican, and 26.7% Independent — and is a predominantly white (87.4%), rural-to-suburban North Country district with a 70.5% homeownership rate, a median household income of $69,819, and a poverty rate of 14.7%. Cashman has sponsored 63 bills in the 2025 session, with his heaviest focus in Executive law (6 bills), Education (5 bills), and Tax law (5 bills), alongside notable activity in Civil Service and Vehicle and Traffic law (4 bills each). No committee chairmanship is indicated in the available data, and no lobbying sector or committee overlap information was provided in this brief.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-115
Base lean: D+9
- Won last contested race by only 4.6 points
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+9). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-115
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michael S. Cashman 52.3% (19,797) | Brent M. Davison 47.7% (18,043) | ⚡ 4.6pts |
| 2024 | D. Billy Jones 71.4% (44,871) | Blank Enrollment 28.6% (17,996) | 42.8pts |
| 2022 | D. Billy Jones 62.9% (30,375) | Stephen H. Chilton, III 37.1% (17,931) | 25.8pts |
| 2020 | D. Billy Jones 100.0% (43,090) | Uncontested | — |
| 2018 | D. Billy Jones 100.0% (31,958) | Uncontested | — |
| 2016 | D. Billy Jones 52.8% (25,972) | Kevin A. Mulverhill 47.2% (23,253) | ⚡ 5.6pts |
| 2014 | Janet L. Duprey 65.3% (18,813) | Karen M. Bisso 34.7% (9,977) | 30.6pts |
| 2012 | Janet L. Duprey 53.0% (24,286) | Timothy R. Carpenter 26.1% (11,971) | 26.9pts |
| 2010 | Claudia Tenney 100.0% (30,981) | Uncontested | — |
| 2008 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 87.6% (33,383) | Daniel L. LeClair 12.4% (4,710) | 75.2pts |
| 2006 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 67.7% (27,233) | David J. Gordon 32.3% (12,986) | 35.4pts |
| 2004 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 68.0% (34,779) | David J. Gordon 32.0% (16,359) | 36.0pts |
| 2002 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 59.4% (21,478) | Ryan A. Nobles 37.6% (13,608) | 21.8pts |
| 2000 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 100.0% (38,080) | Uncontested | — |
| 1998 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 100.0% (31,645) | Uncontested | — |
| 1996 | David R. Townsend, Jr. 63.5% (28,919) | Stephen E. Schiavi 36.5% (16,621) | 27.0pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 (Republican) | Janet L. Duprey 53.1% (1,896) | Karen M. Bisso 46.9% (1,676) | ⚡ 6.2pts |
| 2012 (Republican) | Janet L. Duprey 49.5% (1,584) | Karen M. Bisso 30.4% (972) | 19.1pts |
| 2010 (Republican) | Claudia Tenney 56.1% (1,371) | George E. Joseph 43.9% (1,072) | 12.2pts |
| 2006 (Democratic) | David J. Gordon 54.8% (1,443) | Michael W. Boncella 45.2% (1,190) | ⚡ 9.6pts |
| 2002 (Republican) | David R. Townsend, Jr. 61.5% (5,536) | Daniel W. Yerdon 38.5% (3,468) | 23.0pts |
| 2002 (Conservative) | David R. Townsend, Jr. 50.8% (100) | Daniel W. Yerdon 49.2% (97) | ⚡ 1.6pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 115 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.