Asm. Judy Griffin
Judy Griffin (D-AD-21) represents a D+13 district on Long Island with a voter registration breakdown of 41.1% Democrat, 28.4% Republican, and 26.6% Independent, yet she faces persistent electoral vulnerability — she lost her seat outright in 2022 by 0.2 points, reclaimed it in 2024 by just 3.6 points, and her district's base lean of D+7 places her at Toss-up in a favorable Republican environment under 2026 scenario modeling. The district is characterized by high homeownership (79.8%), a median household income of $140,950, a poverty rate of 5.4%, and a racially diverse population that is 50.0% white, 22.9% Hispanic, 20.8% Black, and 5.8% Asian. First elected in 2019, Griffin has sponsored 46 bills in the 2025 session, with her heaviest focus in Education (6 bills), Penal law (5 bills), Executive law (4 bills), and Real Property Tax (4 bills), alongside sponsorship in Public Health, General Municipal, Tax, and Civil Service areas. Top lobbying sectors active in her district context and the breadth of her tax and municipal bill sponsorship signal areas of potential outside stakeholder engagement across property, education, and local government finance.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-21
Base lean: D+7
- Won last contested race by only 3.6 points
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+7). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-21
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Judy A. Griffin 49.1% (36,036) | Brian F. Curran 45.5% (33,424) | ⚡ 3.6pts |
| 2022 | Brian F. Curran 50.1% (25,839) | Judy A. Griffin 49.9% (25,701) | ⚡ 0.2pts |
| 2020 | Judy A. Griffin 53.1% (36,373) | Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick 46.2% (31,656) | ⚡ 6.9pts |
| 2018 | Judy A. Griffin 53.1% (27,432) | Brian F. Curran 46.9% (24,236) | ⚡ 6.2pts |
| 2016 | Brian F. Curran 57.4% (34,205) | Travis P. Bourgeois 42.6% (25,402) | 14.8pts |
| 2014 | Brian F. Curran 63.2% (20,463) | Adam M. Shapiro 36.8% (11,935) | 26.4pts |
| 2012 | Brian F. Curran 53.7% (27,627) | Jeffrey S. Friedman 46.3% (23,845) | ⚡ 7.4pts |
| 2010 | Edward P. Ra 53.1% (18,842) | Patrick Nicolosi 42.5% (15,097) | 10.6pts |
| 2008 | Thomas W. Alfano 62.3% (31,440) | Alan Smilowitz 37.7% (19,010) | 24.6pts |
| 2006 | Thomas W. Alfano 65.1% (20,815) | Alfred D. Cooper, Sr. 34.9% (11,168) | 30.2pts |
| 2004 | Thomas W. Alfano 63.8% (31,569) | George E. Bassias 36.2% (17,940) | 27.6pts |
| 2002 | Thomas W. Alfano 68.8% (23,110) | Joseph F. DeFelice 28.2% (9,482) | 40.6pts |
| 2000 | Robert D. Barra 57.7% (27,003) | Alan A. Bergstein 42.3% (19,831) | 15.4pts |
| 1998 | James Darcy 62.6% (22,741) | Gary J. Vitanza 33.3% (12,103) | 29.3pts |
| 1996 | Gregory R. Becker 64.8% (29,486) | Robert B. Wallace 32.1% (14,606) | 32.7pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 (Reform) | Judy A. Griffin 67.0% (217) | Brian Curran 31.8% (103) | 35.2pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 21 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.