Asm. Paula Kay
Paula Kay represents AD-100, a district with a D+12 partisan lean but a notably competitive recent electoral history — she won her 2024 general election by just 5.2 points over Louis J. Ingrassia, Jr. (52.6% to 47.4%), and scenario modeling rates the district as only Lean D under a favorable Republican environment in 2026. The district has a population of 133,157 with a majority-minority demographic profile — 54.8% white, 27.3% Hispanic, and 16.5% Black — alongside a 14.5% poverty rate, 62.3% homeownership rate, and a voter registration breakdown of 39.5% Democrat, 27.5% Independent, and 27.4% Republican. First elected in 2025, Kay has sponsored 62 bills in her initial session, with her highest-volume focus areas in Public Service and Vehicle and Traffic law (5 bills each), followed by Alcoholic Beverage Control and Criminal Procedure (4 bills each), and Racing, Pari-Mutuel Wagering and Breeding and Retirement and Social Security (3 bills each). No committee chairmanship is indicated in the available data for Kay.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (17) AI
Stated that safety has become the number one issue for libraries in her district and the bill will help restore libraries as places of quiet reflection, learning, and joy.
No substantive debate occurred on this bill.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition AI
No recorded floor speeches in opposition found in our transcript archive for this member.
Electoral History AD-100
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Paula Elaine Kay 52.6% (27,073) | Louis J. Ingrassia, Jr. 47.4% (24,395) | ⚡ 5.2pts |
| 2022 | Aileen M. Gunther 56.6% (20,257) | Lisa LaBue 43.4% (15,518) | 13.2pts |
| 2020 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (37,529) | Uncontested | — |
| 2018 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (27,347) | Uncontested | — |
| 2016 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (33,142) | Uncontested | — |
| 2014 | Aileen M. Gunther 100.0% (19,561) | Uncontested | — |
| 2012 | Aileen M. Gunther 71.4% (31,299) | Gary D. Linton 28.6% (12,528) | 42.8pts |
| 2010 | Thomas J. Kirwan 50.0% (15,084) | Frank K. Skartados 50.0% (15,069) | ⚡ 0.0pts |
| 2008 | Frank K. Skartados 51.0% (22,630) | Tom Kirwan 49.0% (21,753) | ⚡ 2.0pts |
| 2006 | Thomas J. Kirwan 55.7% (15,228) | Eleanor Thompson 44.3% (12,096) | 11.4pts |
| 2004 | Thomas J. Kirwan 61.0% (23,589) | Elsa App 39.0% (15,110) | 22.0pts |
| 2002 | Thomas J. Kirwan 89.1% (17,581) | Gerard Mileo 6.8% (1,339) | 82.3pts |
| 2000 | Robert A. D'Andrea 72.2% (34,294) | Dennis R. Gravelle 27.8% (13,172) | 44.4pts |
| 1998 | Robert А. D'Andrea 100.0% (26,379) | Uncontested | — |
| 1996 | Robert A. D'Andrea 62.2% (28,002) | Edgar A. King 37.8% (17,038) | 24.4pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Republican) | Louis J. Ingrassia, Jr. 60.2% (1,322) | Camille O'Brien 39.8% (873) | 20.4pts |
| 2008 (Democratic) | Frank K. Skartados 55.6% (892) | Ronald S. Ray 44.4% (712) | 11.2pts |
| 2002 (Green) | Daniel R. Searles 100.0% (5) | Uncontested | — |
Special Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Frank K. Skartados 60.3% (5,869) | John Forman 39.7% (3,856) | 20.6pts |
| 2002 | Roy J. McDonald 70.6% (8,558) | Terry R. Seeley 23.4% (2,834) | 47.2pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-100
Base lean: D+12
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+12). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 6/18/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 100 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.