Asm. David McDonough
David McDonough (R) has represented AD-14 since 2009 in a district with a base lean of R+22 and a voter registration breakdown of 39.3% Republican, 28.9% Democrat, and 27.9% Independent; he won his 2024 general election by 28.0 points over Ellen M. DeFrancesco and is rated Safe R across all 2026 electoral scenarios. The district is a high-income, predominantly suburban Long Island constituency with a median household income of $169,649, a homeownership rate of 94.0%, a poverty rate of 2.8%, and a population that is 81.6% white and 52.9% college-educated. In the 2025 session McDonough sponsored 24 bills, with his heaviest concentrations in Education (6 bills), Highway (3 bills), and Tax (3 bills), followed by Retirement and Vehicle and Traffic (2 bills each). His district's demographic profile — high homeownership, high income, low poverty — aligns with his sponsorship emphasis on education and tax law.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-14
Base lean: R+22
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+22). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-14
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | David G. McDonough 64.0% (49,645) | Ellen M. Lederer DeFrancesco 36.0% (27,907) | 28.0pts |
| 2022 | David G. McDonough 65.0% (40,365) | Dustin Scott Ginsberg 35.0% (21,718) | 30.0pts |
| 2020 | David G. McDonough 59.3% (43,390) | Kevin C. Gorman 39.8% (29,129) | 19.5pts |
| 2018 | David G. McDonough 56.0% (30,673) | Michael F. Reid 44.0% (24,067) | 12.0pts |
| 2016 | David G. McDonough 62.9% (40,051) | Michael F. Reid 37.1% (23,605) | 25.8pts |
| 2014 | David G. McDonough 68.8% (23,616) | Gasparre G. Tumminello 31.2% (10,700) | 37.6pts |
| 2012 | David G. McDonough 63.0% (32,765) | John E. Brooks 37.0% (19,243) | 26.0pts |
| 2010 | Brian F. Curran 60.6% (23,362) | Dermond Thomas 39.4% (15,206) | 21.2pts |
| 2008 | Robert D. Barra 57.4% (31,167) | Joseph J. Ferrara 42.6% (23,178) | 14.8pts |
| 2006 | Robert D. Barra 59.2% (20,938) | Daniel A. Torres 40.8% (14,417) | 18.4pts |
| 2004 | Robert D. Barra 60.4% (32,167) | Daniel A. Torres 39.6% (21,051) | 20.8pts |
| 2002 | Robert D. Barra 60.2% (21,744) | Vincent M. Grasso 35.6% (12,851) | 24.6pts |
| 2000 | Marc W. Herbst 62.9% (29,583) | Gary Burke 36.1% (16,973) | 26.8pts |
| 1998 | Marc W. Herbst 70.0% (24,457) | Barbara Bubin-Buonagura 30.0% (10,491) | 40.0pts |
| 1996 | Marc Herbst 63.0% (27,949) | James P. Keough 33.5% (14,870) | 29.5pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 14 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.