Asm. Amanda Septimo
Amanda Septimo represents AD-84, one of the most heavily Democratic districts in New York State, with a D+67 registration lean and a base model lean of D+76 that places her in the Safe D category across all modeled electoral environments. She won her 2024 general election over Rosaline Nieves by 56.7 points, a narrower margin than her 2022 victory of 67.0 points, though the district has produced landslide margins consistently since at least 2010. The district is densely urban, with a poverty rate of 37.9%, a median household income of $35,581, a homeownership rate of 7.8%, and a population that is 69.1% Hispanic and 30.3% Black, with Democrats holding 72.4% of voter registrations. In the 2025 session, Septimo sponsored 29 bills, with her heaviest focus in Insurance and Public Health at 5 bills each, followed by Criminal Procedure and Environmental Conservation at 3 bills each, reflecting a legislative portfolio oriented around healthcare access, consumer protections, and justice-related policy.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-84
Base lean: D+76
- Limited contested election data — registration lean used as primary signal
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+76). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-84
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Amanda N. Septimo 76.9% (20,303) | Rosaline Nieves 20.2% (5,328) | 56.7pts |
| 2022 | Amanda N. Septimo 83.5% (10,188) | Rosaline Nieves 16.5% (2,017) | 67.0pts |
| 2020 | Amanda N. Septimo 84.1% (27,296) | Rosaline Nieves 10.0% (3,246) | 74.1pts |
| 2018 | Carmen E. Arroyo 89.8% (19,689) | Amanda Septimo 5.5% (1,209) | 84.3pts |
| 2016 | Carmen E. Arroyo 94.3% (26,652) | Rosaline Nieves 5.7% (1,606) | 88.6pts |
| 2014 | Carmen E. Arroyo 91.4% (8,775) | Angel D. Molina 7.2% (691) | 84.2pts |
| 2012 | Carmen E. Arroyo 97.6% (25,298) | Franklin Chidi Oleh 2.4% (616) | 95.2pts |
| 2010 | Carmen E. Arroyo 91.1% (10,896) | Roseline Nieves 8.9% (1,063) | 82.2pts |
| 2008 | Carmen E. Arroyo 98.8% (22,575) | Frank Dellavalle 1.2% (271) | 97.6pts |
| 2006 | Carmen E. Arroyo 92.7% (9,992) | David Rosado 6.0% (647) | 86.7pts |
| 2004 | Carmen E. Arroyo 98.6% (20,046) | Agustin Alamo 1.4% (287) | 97.2pts |
| 2002 | Carmen E. Arroyo 86.4% (9,266) | Pedro G. Espada 12.6% (1,350) | 73.8pts |
| 2000 | J. Gary Pretlow 95.4% (22,305) | Rosaleen J. Tallon 4.6% (1,073) | 90.8pts |
| 1998 | James Gary Pretlow 96.6% (15,795) | Rosaleen Tallon 3.4% (561) | 93.2pts |
| 1996 | James Gary Pretlow 87.9% (20,235) | Donato F. Circello 9.4% (2,172) | 78.5pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 (Democratic) | Carmen E. Arroyo 62.8% (6,142) | Amanda N. Septimo 37.2% (3,640) | 25.6pts |
| 2016 (Democratic) | Carmen E. Arroyo 68.1% (2,154) | Jackson Strong 31.9% (1,008) | 36.2pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 84 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.