Asm. Doug Smith
Doug Smith represents AD-5, a reliably Republican district carrying an R+7 registration lean with 35.1% Republican and 28.2% Democratic enrollment, and rated Safe R across all modeled 2026 electoral scenarios. First elected in 2017, Smith has consistently expanded his margins, winning in 2024 with 64.5% against Michael A. Reynolds for a 29.0-point margin, up from a 17.4-point margin in his first general election in 2018. The district is a high-income, majority-white, heavily homeowning suburban community with a median household income of $123,888, a homeownership rate of 79.8%, and a population of 136,012. In the 2025 session, Smith sponsored 28 bills, with the largest concentration in Penal Law (8 bills), followed by State Finance (3 bills), and smaller clusters in Education, Highway, Public Authorities, and Vehicle and Traffic law (2 bills each).AI
Vulnerability Index AD-5
Base lean: R+23
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+23). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-5
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Douglas M. Smith 64.5% (41,474) | Michael A. Reynolds 35.5% (22,783) | 29.0pts |
| 2022 | Douglas M. Smith 67.1% (33,243) | James M. Anthony 32.9% (16,278) | 34.2pts |
| 2020 | Douglas M. Smith 61.3% (37,210) | Alfred Ianacci 38.7% (23,516) | 22.6pts |
| 2018 | Douglas M. Smith 58.7% (25,075) | Timothy L. Hall 41.3% (17,668) | 17.4pts |
| 2016 | Alfred C. Graf 63.6% (33,384) | Deborah L. Slinkosky 34.9% (18,313) | 28.7pts |
| 2014 | Alfred C. Graf 67.0% (16,968) | Deborah L. Slinkosky 33.0% (8,365) | 34.0pts |
| 2012 | Alfred C. Graf 58.8% (24,493) | Victor E. Salamone 41.2% (17,183) | 17.6pts |
| 2010 | Alfred C. Graf 49.5% (17,810) | Kenneth J. Mangan 29.4% (10,588) | 20.1pts |
| 2008 | Ginny А. Fields 63.5% (30,191) | John W. Bugler 36.5% (17,334) | 27.0pts |
| 2006 | Ginny A. Fields 60.9% (18,406) | William M. Faulk, Jr. 39.1% (11,826) | 21.8pts |
| 2004 | Ginny A. Fields 56.6% (29,106) | John W. Bugler 43.4% (22,363) | 13.2pts |
| 2002 | Steve Levy 69.0% (21,950) | Kathleen A. Brand 31.0% (9,880) | 38.0pts |
| 2000 | Steve Levy 74.9% (27,438) | Thomas E. Sarsfield 25.1% (9,175) | 49.8pts |
| 1998 | Paul E. Harenberg 58.9% (15,282) | Pierce F. Cohalan 38.6% (10,013) | 20.3pts |
| 1996 | Paul E. Harenberg 66.4% (22,344) | Francis P. Murphy 33.6% (11,301) | 32.8pts |
Special Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Douglas M. Smith 63.2% (3,031) | Deborah L. Slinkosky 36.8% (1,767) | 26.4pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 5 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.