Asm. Albert A. Stirpe
Albert A. Stirpe has represented AD-127, a D+3 district in Central New York, since 2009, and has posted consistent but not dominant margins in recent general elections — 13.2 points over Timothy R. Kelly in 2024 and 11.2 points in 2022, though his 2020 race fell to a competitive 9.2-point margin and his 2014 contest was decided by just 5.4 points; the 2026 scenario model rates the seat Likely D at base, sliding to Lean D in a favorable Republican environment. The district is majority-white (86.6%), suburban and homeowner-heavy (76.7% homeownership), with a median household income of $97,621 and a tight registration split — 32.8% Democrat, 30.3% Republican, and 30.9% Independent — reflecting its marginal D+3 lean. In the 2025 session, Stirpe sponsored 77 bills, with his heaviest concentrations in Alcoholic Beverage Control (13 bills), Tax (9 bills), Economic Development (7 bills), and Cannabis (6 bills), alongside smaller clusters in Education, General Municipal, Insurance, and Public Health.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-127
Base lean: D+9
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+9). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-127
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 56.6% (41,280) | Timothy R. Kelly 43.4% (31,710) | 13.2pts |
| 2022 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 55.6% (31,079) | Karen Ayoub 44.4% (24,858) | 11.2pts |
| 2020 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 54.6% (42,219) | Mark R. Venesky 45.4% (35,150) | ⚡ 9.2pts |
| 2018 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 58.0% (33,946) | Nicholas R. Paro 42.0% (24,567) | 16.0pts |
| 2016 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 56.1% (36,604) | Vincent Giordano 37.7% (24,568) | 18.4pts |
| 2014 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 52.7% (23,220) | Robert J. Demarco 47.3% (20,814) | ⚡ 5.4pts |
| 2012 | Albert A. Stirpe, Jr. 55.0% (34,370) | Don Miller 45.0% (28,091) | 10.0pts |
| 2010 | Peter D. Lopez 100.0% (31,561) | Uncontested | — |
| 2008 | Peter D. Lopez 100.0% (34,054) | Uncontested | — |
| 2006 | Peter D. Lopez 55.0% (22,215) | W. Scott Trees 45.0% (18,194) | 10.0pts |
| 2004 | Daniel L. Hooker 55.0% (29,659) | Kevin P. Neary 45.0% (24,304) | 10.0pts |
| 2002 | Daniel L. Hooker 58.6% (21,641) | Dixie Lou Baldrey 31.1% (11,474) | 27.5pts |
| 2000 | George H. Winner, Jr. 84.9% (27,495) | Sidney S. Graubard 15.1% (4,896) | 69.8pts |
| 1998 | George H. Winner, Jr. 100.0% (25,306) | Uncontested | — |
| 1996 | George H. Winner, Jr. 90.8% (25,710) | David W. Cortland 9.2% (2,618) | 81.6pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 (Republican) | Vincent Giordano 51.4% (913) | Michael J. Becallo 48.6% (864) | ⚡ 2.8pts |
| 2002 (Republican) | Daniel L. Hooker 33.9% (2,605) | William E. Cherry 33.2% (2,549) | ⚡ 0.7pts |
| 2000 (Republican) | George H. Winner, Jr. 75.0% (4,781) | Sidney S. Graubard 25.0% (1,596) | 50.0pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 127 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.