Asm. Aron Wieder
Aron Wieder represents AD-97, a D+20 district in New York State, and was first elected in 2025 after winning his 2024 general election with 52.0% of the vote against John W. McGowan's 44.4%, a competitive 7.6-point margin in a district that has seen multiple competitive races over the past decade. The district has a voter registration breakdown of 45.3% Democrat, 25.2% Republican, and 23.9% Independent, with a population of 138,616 that is 68.6% white, 14.8% Hispanic, 10.9% Black, and 4.4% Asian, a median household income of $90,740, and a notably elevated poverty rate of 25.9%. Under all modeled 2026 electoral scenarios — favorable Democrat, neutral, and favorable Republican — the district rates as Safe D. In his first session, Wieder has sponsored 15 bills, with sponsorship concentrated in Education, Insurance, and Retirement (2 bills each), alongside single bills in Health, Lien, Public Authorities, Public Health, and Public Officers; no lobbying sector overlap data or committee chairmanship designations are noted in this brief.AI
Vulnerability Index AD-97
Base lean: D+22
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (D+22). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts. Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/1/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
Electoral History AD-97
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Aron B. Wieder 52.0% (24,749) | John W. McGowan 44.4% (21,098) | ⚡ 7.6pts |
| 2022 | John W. McGowan 67.0% (24,259) | Eudson Tyson Francois 33.0% (11,945) | 34.0pts |
| 2020 | Michael V. Lawler 52.2% (29,936) | Ellen C. Jaffee 47.8% (27,359) | ⚡ 4.4pts |
| 2018 | Ellen C. Jaffee 65.7% (25,100) | Rosario Presti, Jr. 34.3% (13,123) | 31.4pts |
| 2016 | Ellen C. Jaffee 61.4% (29,782) | Joseph S. Chabot 36.4% (17,670) | 25.0pts |
| 2014 | Ellen C. Jaffee 58.6% (16,375) | Robert Romanowski 41.4% (11,557) | 17.2pts |
| 2012 | Ellen C. Jaffee 65.2% (29,546) | Joseph T. Gravagna 34.8% (15,801) | 30.4pts |
| 2010 | Ann G. Rabbitt 54.9% (22,046) | Myrna Kemnitz 45.1% (18,131) | ⚡ 9.8pts |
| 2008 | Ann G. Rabbitt 61.7% (32,400) | Jerome S. Sommer 38.3% (20,118) | 23.4pts |
| 2006 | Ann G. Rabbitt 54.8% (19,834) | Michael D. Paduch 45.2% (16,385) | ⚡ 9.6pts |
| 2004 | Ann G. Rabbitt 50.7% (25,217) | Bonnie H. Kraham 49.3% (24,531) | ⚡ 1.4pts |
| 2002 | Howard D. Mills, III 70.6% (22,146) | Kenneth R. Magar, Sr. 25.3% (7,954) | 45.3pts |
| 2000 | Joel Miller 55.7% (26,580) | Joseph Ruggiero 44.3% (21,156) | 11.4pts |
| 1998 | Joel M. Miller 100.0% (23,750) | Uncontested | — |
| 1996 | Joel Miller 54.5% (24,665) | Joseph Ruggiero 45.5% (20,597) | ⚡ 9.0pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Conservative) | Thomas F. Sullivan 58.4% (272) | John W. McGowan 41.6% (194) | 16.8pts |
| 2018 (Reform) | Ellen C. Jaffee 99.3% (422) | Rosario Presti, Jr. 0.7% (3) | 98.6pts |
| 2016 (Democratic) | Ellen C. Jaffee 65.4% (6,200) | Thomas M. Gulla 34.6% (3,279) | 30.8pts |
| 2016 (Working Families) | Thomas M. Gulla 62.1% (41) | Ellen C. Jaffee 37.9% (25) | 24.2pts |
| 2016 (Green) | Ellen C. Jaffee 91.7% (11) | Thomas M. Gulla 8.3% (1) | 83.4pts |
| 2006 (Independence) | Ann G. Rabbitt 65.4% (140) | Michael D. Paduch 34.6% (74) | 30.8pts |
| 1996 (Independence) | Joel Miller 55.6% (15) | Joseph Ruggiero 44.4% (12) | 11.2pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Voter Registration
District 97 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Joint hearing appearances from NYS Senate hearing transcripts.
Floor Session Activity 2025–2026
Source: Official NY Assembly floor session transcripts (Granicus). AI-processed. Includes sessions from 2023 onward where transcripts are available.
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset (JCOPE filings targeting Assembly members).
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.