Asm. Andrea Bailey
Andrea Bailey represents AD-133, a heavily Republican district rated R+19 by voter registration, where Republicans hold 43.0% of registrations against 24.4% Democrat and 26.5% Independent. Bailey won her first election in 2024 with 65.0% of the vote against Colleen Walsh-Williams (35.0%), a 30.0-point margin, and the district is rated Safe R across all modeled 2026 scenarios including a favorable Democratic environment shift. The district is demographically homogeneous — 90.3% white with 78.8% homeownership, a median household income of $78,123, and a poverty rate of 9.5% — consistent with a rural or suburban upstate New York character. In her first session, Bailey sponsored 316 bills, with Insurance (69 bills) as the dominant focus area, followed by Executive (25), Criminal Procedure (16), Education (15), Correction (14), and Public Health (14); her 63 joint hearing engagements indicate active committee participation, though no chairmanship is noted in this brief.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from floor debate speeches, joint committee hearing transcripts, and sponsored legislation. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (12) AI
Supported the bill while raising technical concerns about clerk-of-court responsibilities and filing fee barriers that could delay victim protections. Advocated for future chapter amendments to address these practical issues.
Voted affirmatively based on constituent cases involving erroneous tolls and the difficulty of removing items from credit reports, though acknowledged the bill addresses only a symptom of a larger systemic problem.
Bailey supported the legislation as commonsense protection, noting it was the top priority of the County Clerk's Association and protects vulnerable populations.
Thanked the sponsor and noted the bill was a priority of the County Clerk's Association, calling it commonsense legislation that protects vulnerable populations.
Thanked the sponsor and noted the bill was a priority of the County Clerk's Association, calling it commonsense legislation that protects vulnerable populations.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (12) AI
Questioned the timeline for equipment calibration compliance and financial implications, noting municipalities may lack resources to update equipment immediately and asking who would enforce the metering and calibration requirements.
Expressed concerns about financial implications and unfunded mandates, particularly the requirement for municipalities to meter and calibrate vehicles. Questioned the scope of implementation and enforcement without additional state funding.
Questioned the bill's vagueness and whether it solves the stated problem. Argued existing protections—title abstracts, chain of custody reviews, notarization, county clerk notifications—already prevent fraudulent mortgages, and expressed concern the bill lacks clarity on when and how fraud would be identified during foreclosure proceedings.
Questioned what the bill adds beyond existing federal law already enforced by State Police; noted lack of data on how many ERPO/TERPO subjects have attempted ammunition purchases; argued the bill further complicates Penal Law 400 without addressing root causes.
Argued the process already exists and questioned why incarcerated individuals should receive free IDs when other New Yorkers must pay. Suggested resources should focus on helping homebound individuals renew identification instead.
Electoral History AD-133
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Andrea K. Bailey 65.0% (44,991) | Colleen Walsh-Williams 35.0% (24,195) | 30.0pts |
| 2022 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 67.5% (36,589) | Sara M. Spezzano 32.5% (17,618) | 35.0pts |
| 2020 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 61.8% (41,760) | ChaRon K. Sattler-Leblanc 38.2% (25,830) | 23.6pts |
| 2018 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 54.5% (29,687) | Barbara A. Baer 42.8% (23,340) | 11.7pts |
| 2016 | Joe Errigo 56.6% (34,420) | Barbara A. Baer 43.4% (26,353) | 13.2pts |
| 2014 | Bill Nojay 100.0% (31,802) | Uncontested | — |
| 2012 | Bill Nojay 51.3% (28,556) | Randolph J. Weaver 38.0% (21,165) | 13.3pts |
| 2010 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (14,972) | Uncontested | — |
| 2008 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (29,622) | Uncontested | — |
| 2006 | David F. Gantt 76.4% (14,791) | Carlos Q. Coker 23.6% (4,563) | 52.8pts |
| 2004 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (22,050) | Uncontested | — |
| 2002 | David F. Gantt 81.7% (14,872) | Mark J. McCabe 9.3% (1,690) | 72.4pts |
| 2000 | David F. Gantt 72.1% (20,274) | Stephen Tucciarello 26.1% (7,330) | 46.0pts |
| 1998 | David F. Gantt 87.5% (15,744) | Judith А. Sinclair 12.5% (2,254) | 75.0pts |
| 1996 | David F. Gantt 74.5% (21,545) | AJ Sweney 23.6% (6,820) | 50.9pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 (Republican) | Marjorie L. Byrnes 61.9% (3,709) | Joe Errigo 38.1% (2,282) | 23.8pts |
| 2016 (Republican) | Bill Nojay 61.0% (2,848) | Richard B. Milne 39.0% (1,820) | 22.0pts |
| 2012 (Republican) | Bill Nojay 57.2% (3,555) | Richard E. Burke 42.8% (2,657) | 14.4pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-133
Base lean: R+29
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+29). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 10/21/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 133 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.