Asm. Andrea Bailey
Andrea Bailey represents AD-133, a heavily Republican district rated R+19 by voter registration, where Republicans hold 43.0% of registrations against 24.4% Democrat and 26.5% Independent. Bailey won her first election in 2024 with 65.0% of the vote against Colleen Walsh-Williams (35.0%), a 30.0-point margin, and the district is rated Safe R across all modeled 2026 scenarios including a favorable Democratic environment shift. The district is demographically homogeneous — 90.3% white with 78.8% homeownership, a median household income of $78,123, and a poverty rate of 9.5% — consistent with a rural or suburban upstate New York character. In her first session, Bailey sponsored 316 bills, with Insurance (69 bills) as the dominant focus area, followed by Executive (25), Criminal Procedure (16), Education (15), Correction (14), and Public Health (14); her 63 joint hearing engagements indicate active committee participation, though no chairmanship is noted in this brief.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (7) AI
Sponsor emphasized New York farmers generate $8.5 billion in income but the state has seen drastic decline—15 percent fewer farms and 11 percent less farmland since 2015. Argued statutory authority ensures year-to-year funding certainty for succession planning, helping younger farmers enter the industry and preventing loss of additional farmland as aging farmers retire.
Sponsor argued the Farmland for a New Generation Program is essential to address a farming crisis, noting New York lost 500 farms and 100,000 acres in one year (2024-2025), with 80 percent of losses from small farms. Emphasized that with 35 percent of farmers over 65, putting the program into statute ensures consistent funding for succession planning and helps younger farmers enter the industry, protecting two million acres at risk.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (3) AI
The bill's flexibility creates room for error and inconsistency; informal summaries may not be filed in official case records, and modern Certificates of Disposition are already readable and serve as true legal documents.
Raised implementation concerns about interest rate recalculation, noting that existing judgments issued at 9 percent interest would need to be recalculated to 2 percent, creating a heavy administrative lift for county clerks and law enforcement agencies collecting garnished wages.
Raised practical concerns about implementation burden on stakeholders including county court judges, county clerks, police chiefs, State Police, gun dealers, and gunsmiths. Calculated the bill would require distribution of over half-a-million pieces of paper annually (1,122 reams, 67 trees) and criticized the short timeline for stakeholders to adapt without consultation.
Electoral History AD-133
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Andrea K. Bailey 65.0% (44,991) | Colleen Walsh-Williams 35.0% (24,195) | 30.0pts |
| 2022 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 67.5% (36,589) | Sara M. Spezzano 32.5% (17,618) | 35.0pts |
| 2020 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 61.8% (41,760) | ChaRon K. Sattler-Leblanc 38.2% (25,830) | 23.6pts |
| 2018 | Marjorie L. Byrnes 54.5% (29,687) | Barbara A. Baer 42.8% (23,340) | 11.7pts |
| 2016 | Joe Errigo 56.6% (34,420) | Barbara A. Baer 43.4% (26,353) | 13.2pts |
| 2014 | Bill Nojay 100.0% (31,802) | Uncontested | — |
| 2012 | Bill Nojay 51.3% (28,556) | Randolph J. Weaver 38.0% (21,165) | 13.3pts |
| 2010 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (14,972) | Uncontested | — |
| 2008 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (29,622) | Uncontested | — |
| 2006 | David F. Gantt 76.4% (14,791) | Carlos Q. Coker 23.6% (4,563) | 52.8pts |
| 2004 | David F. Gantt 100.0% (22,050) | Uncontested | — |
| 2002 | David F. Gantt 81.7% (14,872) | Mark J. McCabe 9.3% (1,690) | 72.4pts |
| 2000 | David F. Gantt 72.1% (20,274) | Stephen Tucciarello 26.1% (7,330) | 46.0pts |
| 1998 | David F. Gantt 87.5% (15,744) | Judith А. Sinclair 12.5% (2,254) | 75.0pts |
| 1996 | David F. Gantt 74.5% (21,545) | AJ Sweney 23.6% (6,820) | 50.9pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 (Republican) | Marjorie L. Byrnes 61.9% (3,709) | Joe Errigo 38.1% (2,282) | 23.8pts |
| 2016 (Republican) | Bill Nojay 61.0% (2,848) | Richard B. Milne 39.0% (1,820) | 22.0pts |
| 2012 (Republican) | Bill Nojay 57.2% (3,555) | Richard E. Burke 42.8% (2,657) | 14.4pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-133
Base lean: R+29
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+29). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/20/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 133 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.