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Asm. Jake Ryan Blumencranz

District 15 Republican First elected 2021

Jake Ryan Blumencranz represents AD-15, a district with an even partisan registration split — 32.7% Republican, 32.2% Democrat, and 31.3% Independent — yet has held the seat with consistent margins since his first election in 2021, winning in 2022 with a 15.6-point margin and in 2024 with a 16.0-point margin; the district's base lean is R+10 and is rated Likely R under neutral conditions in the 2026 cycle. The district is a high-income, high-homeownership suburban area with a median household income of $158,935, an 86.2% homeownership rate, a 57.9% bachelor's degree attainment rate, and a racial composition of 65.1% white, 20.3% Asian, 13.1% Hispanic, and 1.5% Black. In the 2025 session, Blumencranz sponsored 29 bills, with his heaviest concentration in Education (5 bills), followed by Public Health, Real Property Taxation (3 bills each), and Environmental Conservation, General Business, and Vehicle and Traffic (2 bills each). No committee chairmanship is listed for Blumencranz in this brief, and no lobbying sector data is available for overlap analysis.AI

Topic Focus AI

IDNYC Verification & Banking Access Racial & Ethnic Data Disaggregation Standards Algorithmic Transparency & Automated Decision-Making Beneficial Ownership Reporting & LLC Transparency Social Media & Addictive Feed Regulation Campus Anti-Semitism Funding Dynamic Pricing Disclosure Health Data Privacy Pharmacy Benefit Manager Transparency & Competition Senior Housing & Affordable Housing Finance Step Therapy Protocol Requirements Synthetic Media & Deepfake Regulation

Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.

Key Issues AI

General Municipal 2 against A10409
Vehicle and Traffic 1 against A3484
Education 5 bills
Public Health 3 bills
Real Property Taxation 3 bills
Environmental Conservation 2 bills
General Business 2 bills
Vehicle and Traffic 2 bills
Civil Service 1 bills
Education 1 bills

Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.

Legislative Activity (2025–2026)

Bills sponsored 29
Joint hearing appearances 2
Floor debate appearances 50
Years in office 5

Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).

Bill Focus Areas

Education 5 bills
Public Health 3 bills
Real Property Taxation 3 bills
Environmental Conservation 2 bills
General Business 2 bills
Vehicle and Traffic 2 bills
Civil Service 1 bill
Education 1 bill

Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.

Floor Speeches: In Support (15) AI

A08368-A An act authorizing the Commissioner of General Services to transfer and convey certain State land to the Syosset Central School District; and providing for the repeal of such provisions upon expiration thereof 2025-06-16 PASSED
A06757 Peer-to-peer vehicle rental insurance requirements 2025-06-16 PASSED

Supported the bill as a rectification of policy that hurts businesses and allows alternative transportation forms to help small businesses and communities lacking transit options.

A00433 Chapter amendment to amend State Technology Law and Civil Service Law relating to disclosure of automated employment decision-making tools and maintaining an artificial intelligence inventory 2025-02-12 PASSED

Stated the bill made substantial improvements from last year's version and appreciated the new language, though he emphasized the importance of collaborative work to ensure clarity as the state enters the technological revolution.

A10139-A An act in relation to authorizing the Town of Oyster Bay to discontinue as parklands and convey such parkland to the Department of Environmental Conservation 2024-06-10 PASSED
A10355-A An act to amend the Private Housing Finance Law, in relation to authorizing the granting of an additional real property tax exemption for certain redevelopment company projects within the County of Nassau 2024-06-10 PASSED

Described the legislation as literally life or death for some seniors and thanked the sponsor for the hard effort to get it passed.

Floor Speeches: In Opposition (35) AI

A08662-A An act to amend the Limited Liability Company Law, in relation to the scope of certain provisions relating to beneficial owners of limited liability companies 2025-06-17

Bill adopts language Federal courts found unconstitutional and Federal Government no longer enforces after FinCEN rescinded beneficial ownership reporting in March 2025. Creates two different compliance mechanisms (State and Federal) and lacks empirical evidence of crime deterrence.

A8662-A LLC Transparency Act - Definition Codification (Technical Amendment) 2025-06-17 PASSED

Argued the bill is not a technical fix but substantive legislation that codifies Federal definitions no longer enforced; creates duplicative compliance regimes, exempts the very entities it targets, and puts vulnerable populations at risk while the Federal version was deemed unconstitutional.

A04641 An act to amend the Environmental Conservation Law, in relation to synthetic performer disclosure in advertisements 2025-06-17 PASSED

Raised extensive concerns about undefined terms and subjective standards, questioning who determines the line between synthetic and real performers, whether the AG has expertise to enforce the law, and whether the bill is overly broad. Suggested a more tailored approach focusing on impersonations and deceptive use rather than all synthetic media.

A03000-D State Operations Budget - All-Funds appropriation of $63.6 billion for State fiscal year 2025-26 2025-05-08 PASSED

Expressed dismay that the budget lacks specific funding to combat anti-Semitism at CUNY and SUNY despite rising attacks on Jewish students and pending Office of Civil Rights cases, calling it a failure to prioritize Jewish student safety.

A03000-D State Operations Budget - All-Funds appropriation of $63.6 billion for State fiscal year 2025-26 2025-05-08 PASSED

Expressed concern that budget lacks specific line items or material changes to combat rising anti-Semitic attacks at SUNY and CUNY institutions; noted Jewish students are leaving these schools due to safety concerns and pending Office of Civil Rights cases.

Electoral History

General Elections

Year Winner Runner-up Margin
2024 Jacob Ryan Blumencranz 58.0% (38,847) William L. Murphy 42.0% (28,081) 16.0pts
2022 Jake Ryan Blumencranz 57.8% (29,910) Amanda R. Field 42.2% (21,849) 15.6pts
2020 Michael A. Montesano 55.7% (36,850) Joseph J. Sackman, III 44.3% (29,331) 11.4pts
2018 Michael A. Montesano 52.6% (24,902) Allen F. Foley 47.4% (22,452) 5.2pts
2016 Michael A. Montesano 55.6% (31,816) Dean E. Hart 44.4% (25,381) 11.2pts
2014 Michael A. Montesano 66.7% (19,672) Mario Ferone 33.3% (9,801) 33.4pts
2012 Michael A. Montesano 59.6% (27,954) Mario Ferone 40.4% (18,951) 19.2pts
2010 Michael A. Montesano 62.9% (21,606) Leon P. Hart 37.1% (12,730) 25.8pts
2008 Rob Walker 60.1% (30,528) Stephanie G. Ovadia 39.9% (20,272) 20.2pts
2006 Rob Walker 59.1% (19,294) Matthew G. Pangburn 40.9% (13,368) 18.2pts
2004 Donna T. Ferrara 61.6% (32,161) Richard S. Taubman 38.4% (20,043) 23.2pts
2002 Donna T. Ferrara 69.3% (23,172) Jim Buonagura 27.8% (9,288) 41.5pts
2000 Donna Ferrara 61.8% (29,187) Darlene Sigalow 35.9% (16,956) 25.9pts
1998 Donna Ferrara 66.7% (23,851) Irving Gerber 30.9% (11,057) 35.8pts
1996 Donna Ferrara 65.7% (29,145) Todd J. Schalkan 32.7% (14,502) 33.0pts

Special Elections

Year Winner Runner-up Margin
2010 Michael A. Montesano 71.1% (4,059) Matthew T. Men 28.9% (1,652) 42.2pts
2005 Rob Walker 81.2% (2,040) Kathleen Magin Arreco 18.8% (471) 62.4pts

Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.

Vulnerability Index

Base lean: R+10

Favorable D
Lean R
Neutral
Likely R
Favorable R
Likely R

Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+10). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/21/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.

District 15 Profile

Population 132,837
Median income $158,935
Median rent $2,565
Homeownership 86.2%
Education (BA+) 57.9%
Poverty rate 4.3%
Uninsured rate 3.3%
Unemployment rate 4.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).

Voter Registration

32%
33%
35%
Dem 32.2% Rep 32.7% Ind/Other 35.1%

Demographics

White 65.1%
Black 1.5%
Hispanic 13.1%
Asian 20.3%
Median age 44.3
Foreign born 21.2%
Limited English households 4.4%
Veterans 2.7%
Disability rate 9.6%

Commute Mode

Drive alone 60.5%
Public transit 11.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.

Lobbying Activity

No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.

Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.