Asm. Jake Ryan Blumencranz
Jake Ryan Blumencranz represents AD-15, a district with an even partisan registration split — 32.7% Republican, 32.2% Democrat, and 31.3% Independent — yet has held the seat with consistent margins since his first election in 2021, winning in 2022 with a 15.6-point margin and in 2024 with a 16.0-point margin; the district's base lean is R+10 and is rated Likely R under neutral conditions in the 2026 cycle. The district is a high-income, high-homeownership suburban area with a median household income of $158,935, an 86.2% homeownership rate, a 57.9% bachelor's degree attainment rate, and a racial composition of 65.1% white, 20.3% Asian, 13.1% Hispanic, and 1.5% Black. In the 2025 session, Blumencranz sponsored 29 bills, with his heaviest concentration in Education (5 bills), followed by Public Health, Real Property Taxation (3 bills each), and Environmental Conservation, General Business, and Vehicle and Traffic (2 bills each). No committee chairmanship is listed for Blumencranz in this brief, and no lobbying sector data is available for overlap analysis.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (15) AI
Supported the bill as a rectification of policy that hurts businesses and allows alternative transportation forms to help small businesses and communities lacking transit options.
Stated the bill made substantial improvements from last year's version and appreciated the new language, though he emphasized the importance of collaborative work to ensure clarity as the state enters the technological revolution.
Described the legislation as literally life or death for some seniors and thanked the sponsor for the hard effort to get it passed.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (35) AI
Bill adopts language Federal courts found unconstitutional and Federal Government no longer enforces after FinCEN rescinded beneficial ownership reporting in March 2025. Creates two different compliance mechanisms (State and Federal) and lacks empirical evidence of crime deterrence.
Argued the bill is not a technical fix but substantive legislation that codifies Federal definitions no longer enforced; creates duplicative compliance regimes, exempts the very entities it targets, and puts vulnerable populations at risk while the Federal version was deemed unconstitutional.
Raised extensive concerns about undefined terms and subjective standards, questioning who determines the line between synthetic and real performers, whether the AG has expertise to enforce the law, and whether the bill is overly broad. Suggested a more tailored approach focusing on impersonations and deceptive use rather than all synthetic media.
Expressed dismay that the budget lacks specific funding to combat anti-Semitism at CUNY and SUNY despite rising attacks on Jewish students and pending Office of Civil Rights cases, calling it a failure to prioritize Jewish student safety.
Expressed concern that budget lacks specific line items or material changes to combat rising anti-Semitic attacks at SUNY and CUNY institutions; noted Jewish students are leaving these schools due to safety concerns and pending Office of Civil Rights cases.
Electoral History AD-15
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jacob Ryan Blumencranz 58.0% (38,847) | William L. Murphy 42.0% (28,081) | 16.0pts |
| 2022 | Jake Ryan Blumencranz 57.8% (29,910) | Amanda R. Field 42.2% (21,849) | 15.6pts |
| 2020 | Michael A. Montesano 55.7% (36,850) | Joseph J. Sackman, III 44.3% (29,331) | 11.4pts |
| 2018 | Michael A. Montesano 52.6% (24,902) | Allen F. Foley 47.4% (22,452) | ⚡ 5.2pts |
| 2016 | Michael A. Montesano 55.6% (31,816) | Dean E. Hart 44.4% (25,381) | 11.2pts |
| 2014 | Michael A. Montesano 66.7% (19,672) | Mario Ferone 33.3% (9,801) | 33.4pts |
| 2012 | Michael A. Montesano 59.6% (27,954) | Mario Ferone 40.4% (18,951) | 19.2pts |
| 2010 | Michael A. Montesano 62.9% (21,606) | Leon P. Hart 37.1% (12,730) | 25.8pts |
| 2008 | Rob Walker 60.1% (30,528) | Stephanie G. Ovadia 39.9% (20,272) | 20.2pts |
| 2006 | Rob Walker 59.1% (19,294) | Matthew G. Pangburn 40.9% (13,368) | 18.2pts |
| 2004 | Donna T. Ferrara 61.6% (32,161) | Richard S. Taubman 38.4% (20,043) | 23.2pts |
| 2002 | Donna T. Ferrara 69.3% (23,172) | Jim Buonagura 27.8% (9,288) | 41.5pts |
| 2000 | Donna Ferrara 61.8% (29,187) | Darlene Sigalow 35.9% (16,956) | 25.9pts |
| 1998 | Donna Ferrara 66.7% (23,851) | Irving Gerber 30.9% (11,057) | 35.8pts |
| 1996 | Donna Ferrara 65.7% (29,145) | Todd J. Schalkan 32.7% (14,502) | 33.0pts |
Special Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Michael A. Montesano 71.1% (4,059) | Matthew T. Men 28.9% (1,652) | 42.2pts |
| 2005 | Rob Walker 81.2% (2,040) | Kathleen Magin Arreco 18.8% (471) | 62.4pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-15
Base lean: R+10
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+10). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/21/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 15 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.