Asm. Josh Jensen
Josh Jensen represents AD-134, a Republican-leaning district with a base lean of R+4 and a voter registration breakdown of 33.5% Republican, 33.3% Independent, and 30.2% Democrat; he ran uncontested in both 2024 and 2022, and in his first contested run in 2020 won by a 19.3-point margin, though scenario modeling places the district as a toss-up in a favorable Democratic environment, flagging modest but real vulnerability in 2026. The district is predominantly suburban and homeowning — 74.1% homeownership, 79.5% white, with a median household income of $83,189 and a poverty rate of 9.8% — reflecting a stable middle-class constituency with a slight but not commanding Republican registration edge. In the 2025 session Jensen sponsored 89 bills, with his heaviest concentration in Education (14 bills), Public Health (8 bills), Penal and Tax law (6 bills each), and State Finance (4 bills), indicating a broad generalist portfolio with particular emphasis on education and health policy. Jensen recorded 1 joint hearing engagement and no committee chairmanship is listed in this brief.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from floor debate speeches, joint committee hearing transcripts, and sponsored legislation. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (14) AI
Shared personal anecdote of his seven-year-old son having a full conversation with an AI assistant in their kitchen, motivating his support.
Supported the bill as streamlining vapor product regulation by moving taxing authority from Health to Tax and Finance. Noted the system mimics Connecticut's approach and will combat illicit vape sales while maintaining tax revenue for public health.
While initially questioning implementation details, ultimately supported the bill, noting it has sufficient safeguards and could facilitate successful reintegration of formerly incarcerated individuals into society by ensuring healthcare access is already addressed upon release.
Expressed support for the bill while noting concern about timing relative to prior legislation, but acknowledged the urgency of addressing New York's maternal mortality crisis, particularly its disproportionate impact on Black women.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (36) AI
Raised concerns about the lack of public hearings and Judiciary Committee review, questioned why other judicial districts with similar population disparities (like the 9th JD with Westchester County) were not similarly restructured, and highlighted significant per-judge population disparities between districts (approximately 20,000 more people per judge in the 7th JD versus Erie County).
Expressed concern about passing a study bill before previously-enacted doula legislation had fully gone into effect and pilot programs had been fully assessed. While supporting the bill and acknowledging the maternal health crisis, questioned whether studying programs before they matured was premature.
Questioned why the bill mandates how private contracts are negotiated and expressed concern about consumer confusion when switching between products within the same insurance company.
While supporting healthier eating, emphasized personal responsibility and proposed QR codes as a common-sense alternative to reduce printing burden on businesses when menus and recipes change.
While supporting healthier eating, Jensen emphasized personal responsibility and suggested QR codes as a common-sense alternative to reduce printing burden on businesses when menus and recipes change. Expressed concerns about regulatory burden on the industry.
Electoral History AD-134
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Josh Jensen 100.0% (48,903) | Uncontested | — |
| 2022 | Josh Jensen 100.0% (38,580) | Uncontested | — |
| 2020 | Josh Jensen 57.8% (38,937) | Carolyn D. Carrol 38.5% (25,924) | 19.3pts |
| 2018 | Peter A. Lawrence 100.0% (37,758) | Uncontested | — |
| 2016 | Peter A. Lawrence 100.0% (48,022) | Uncontested | — |
| 2014 | Peter A. Lawrence 67.7% (24,269) | Gary E. Pudup 32.3% (11,553) | 35.4pts |
| 2012 | Bill Reilich 100.0% (45,841) | Uncontested | — |
| 2010 | Bill Reilich 69.6% (27,407) | David G. Zimmerman 30.4% (11,998) | 39.2pts |
| 2008 | Bill Reilich 63.9% (33,513) | David L. Garretson 36.1% (18,897) | 27.8pts |
| 2006 | Bill Reilich 64.9% (25,017) | Philip A. Fedele 35.1% (13,541) | 29.8pts |
| 2004 | Bill Reilich 65.8% (33,494) | Laurie E. Shea 34.2% (17,437) | 31.6pts |
| 2002 | Bill Reilich 62.3% (24,573) | Frederick J. Amato 37.7% (14,842) | 24.6pts |
| 2000 | Joseph E. Robach 78.6% (36,824) | William N. Faber 21.4% (10,050) | 57.2pts |
| 1998 | Joseph Е. Robach 80.9% (29,689) | Carolyn S. Rapp 19.1% (7,025) | 61.8pts |
| 1996 | Joseph E. Robach 100.0% (36,987) | Uncontested | — |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Democratic) | Carolyn D. Carrol 78.9% (5,172) | Dylan P. Dailor 21.1% (1,386) | 57.8pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-134
Base lean: R+4
- Limited contested election data — registration lean used as primary signal
- Ran uncontested in most recent election
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+4). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 10/20/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 134 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.