Asm. Josh Jensen
Josh Jensen represents AD-134, a Republican-leaning district with a base lean of R+4 and a voter registration breakdown of 33.5% Republican, 33.3% Independent, and 30.2% Democrat; he ran uncontested in both 2024 and 2022, and in his first contested run in 2020 won by a 19.3-point margin, though scenario modeling places the district as a toss-up in a favorable Democratic environment, flagging modest but real vulnerability in 2026. The district is predominantly suburban and homeowning — 74.1% homeownership, 79.5% white, with a median household income of $83,189 and a poverty rate of 9.8% — reflecting a stable middle-class constituency with a slight but not commanding Republican registration edge. In the 2025 session Jensen sponsored 89 bills, with his heaviest concentration in Education (14 bills), Public Health (8 bills), Penal and Tax law (6 bills each), and State Finance (4 bills), indicating a broad generalist portfolio with particular emphasis on education and health policy. Jensen recorded 1 joint hearing engagement and no committee chairmanship is listed in this brief.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (10) AI
While expressing concerns about unfunded mandates on healthcare providers facing staffing and reimbursement challenges, acknowledged the need for culturally competent healthcare for non-English speakers, particularly in diverse communities across the State, and indicated support for the bill.
Argued that state agencies repeatedly report difficulty recruiting qualified individuals and that telework legislation will help ensure efficient government operations while maintaining productivity. Noted the Assembly itself has successfully implemented teleworking.
Argued the bill helps State agencies recruit and retain qualified employees in a competitive market. Noted State agencies report workforce shortages and that telework has proven effective in the Assembly itself, ensuring productivity while improving recruitment.
Supported the bill while noting concerns that the 90,000 population threshold may exclude small manufacturing communities below that size and may miss statistically significant clusters in villages within larger municipalities. Suggested future amendments to reconsider the population threshold.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (40) AI
Questioned the transparency and methodology of the medical academies, asking whether they publish recommendations annually, conduct peer-reviewed research, or use other rigorous processes. Raised concerns about potential conflicts between different academies and whether the bill adequately addressed scenarios where organizations might disagree on vaccine recommendations.
Argued the bill, though well-intentioned, risks producing opposite outcomes by discouraging investment in roads, sewer systems, water infrastructure, and electrical upgrades. Warned that making it harder to recover costs creates rational incentive to invest less, leading to aging infrastructure and declining conditions. Called for a clear capital improvement recovery mechanism and differentiation between maintenance and capital investment.
Argued the bill, despite good intentions, creates unintended consequences by discouraging property owners from investing in capital improvements. Warned that making it harder to recover costs through rent increases will lead owners to invest less, resulting in aging infrastructure, declining property conditions, and ultimately harming the residents the bill aims to protect. Called for a clearer capital improvement recovery mechanism and differentiation between maintenance and investment.
Questioned the practical enforceability of requiring the New York hotline on nationally televised ads, noting companies may accept fines rather than comply, and expressed concern about the Gaming Commission's pre-approval authority over federally-regulated broadcast content.
Opposed the bill because both companies negotiated the $1.25 million requirement to operate in New York, and changing it only four years later without any study showing it's unnecessary is premature. Noted that Turo makes $1 billion in profits and the change protects a large corporation at public risk.
Electoral History AD-134
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Josh Jensen 100.0% (48,903) | Uncontested | — |
| 2022 | Josh Jensen 100.0% (38,580) | Uncontested | — |
| 2020 | Josh Jensen 57.8% (38,937) | Carolyn D. Carrol 38.5% (25,924) | 19.3pts |
| 2018 | Peter A. Lawrence 100.0% (37,758) | Uncontested | — |
| 2016 | Peter A. Lawrence 100.0% (48,022) | Uncontested | — |
| 2014 | Peter A. Lawrence 67.7% (24,269) | Gary E. Pudup 32.3% (11,553) | 35.4pts |
| 2012 | Bill Reilich 100.0% (45,841) | Uncontested | — |
| 2010 | Bill Reilich 69.6% (27,407) | David G. Zimmerman 30.4% (11,998) | 39.2pts |
| 2008 | Bill Reilich 63.9% (33,513) | David L. Garretson 36.1% (18,897) | 27.8pts |
| 2006 | Bill Reilich 64.9% (25,017) | Philip A. Fedele 35.1% (13,541) | 29.8pts |
| 2004 | Bill Reilich 65.8% (33,494) | Laurie E. Shea 34.2% (17,437) | 31.6pts |
| 2002 | Bill Reilich 62.3% (24,573) | Frederick J. Amato 37.7% (14,842) | 24.6pts |
| 2000 | Joseph E. Robach 78.6% (36,824) | William N. Faber 21.4% (10,050) | 57.2pts |
| 1998 | Joseph Е. Robach 80.9% (29,689) | Carolyn S. Rapp 19.1% (7,025) | 61.8pts |
| 1996 | Joseph E. Robach 100.0% (36,987) | Uncontested | — |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Democratic) | Carolyn D. Carrol 78.9% (5,172) | Dylan P. Dailor 21.1% (1,386) | 57.8pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-134
Base lean: R+4
- Limited contested election data — registration lean used as primary signal
- Ran uncontested in most recent election
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+4). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/21/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 134 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.