Asm. Robert Smullen
Robert Smullen (R) represents AD-118, a heavily Republican district carrying an R+28 registration lean and a base electoral lean of R+34, where he has run uncontested in each of his last three general elections (2020, 2022, 2024) and is rated Safe R across all 2026 modeled scenarios; his only contested race was his initial 2018 victory with 63.4% of the vote against Keith A. Rubino's 36.6%, a margin of 26.8 points. The district is demographically homogeneous and rural in character, with a population of 136,440 that is 91.3% white, a homeownership rate of 75.1%, a median household income of $67,075, and a bachelor's degree attainment rate of 22.4%; Republicans hold a commanding registration advantage at 48.4% to Democrats' 20.7%, with Independents comprising 24.2%. In the 2025 session, Smullen sponsored 51 bills, with his heaviest concentrations in Tax (9 bills), Education (7 bills), Environmental Conservation (3 bills), and Penal and Public Health (2 bills each). Top lobbying sectors active in his district have not been specified in the available data, though his bill sponsorship portfolio spans tax, education, and public health domains.AI
Topic Focus AI
Topics extracted by AI from joint Senate-Assembly committee hearing transcripts and floor debate. Tag size reflects number of supporting citations.
Key Issues AI
Key issue areas derived from floor debate speeches and sponsored bill law sections.
Legislative Activity (2025–2026)
Bill sponsorship from NYS Open Legislation API. Hearing appearances from joint Senate-Assembly committee transcripts. Floor debate from official Assembly session transcripts (Granicus, 2023–present).
Bill Focus Areas 2025–2026
Grouped by law section from sponsored Assembly bills. Source: NYS Open Legislation API.
Floor Speeches: In Support (18) AI
Noted this was a necessary budget bill and expressed relief that the state is finally liquidating pandemic-era UI debt that New York businesses have been paying for over four years, despite available surpluses.
Smullen introduced the bill in memory of his son, Alexander John Smullen, and thanked colleagues and leadership for passing it unanimously. He expressed hope the legislation would help families remember loved ones and serve as a reminder of highway safety dangers.
Floor Speeches: In Opposition (18) AI
Challenged the constitutionality of the bill, arguing New York cannot ignore FDA regulations codified under U.S. law in favor of WHO guidance from an unelected foreign official. Noted the U.S. formally withdrew from the WHO on January 22, 2025, making reliance on WHO standards problematic. Questioned whether the bill violates treaty requirements and constitutional sovereignty principles.
Questioned whether DCJS is the appropriate expert agency versus the federal ATF, and raised concerns about interstate commerce implications. Challenged the statistics cited in the sponsor's memo regarding stolen firearms. Expressed worry about open-ended regulatory authority granted to DCJS without further legislation, particularly given the nascent state of the technology. Argued that if personalized handguns are truly viable, market forces alone would drive adoption without state regulation, and that criminals would ignore regulations regardless.
Argued that New York's debt situation is a 'red light warning' with per-capita debt of nearly $3,000 and total authority debt of $325 billion. Called for strategic planning and spending reductions rather than continued borrowing, noting New York ranks last in economic outlook while ranking first in taxes.
Smullen argued the state faces a 'red light warning situation' with $56-65 billion in state debt plus $325 billion in public authority debt, totaling nearly $17,000 per capita when combined. He urged the body to reduce spending and pay down debt rather than continue borrowing, noting New York ranks last in economic outlook while ranking first in taxes.
Contended the chapter amendment actually broadens the law by expanding application to all "dealer of firearms" sales. Raised concerns about who has access to MCC code data and whether warrants are required, characterizing it as an unconstitutional attempt to create a firearm registry.
Electoral History AD-118
General Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Robert J. Smullen 100.0% (50,250) | Uncontested | — |
| 2022 | Robert J. Smullen 100.0% (39,263) | Uncontested | — |
| 2020 | Robert J. Smullen 100.0% (48,098) | Uncontested | — |
| 2018 | Robert J. Smullen 63.4% (28,209) | Keith A. Rubino 36.6% (16,263) | 26.8pts |
| 2016 | Marc W. Butler 100.0% (42,565) | Uncontested | — |
| 2014 | Marc W. Butler 100.0% (27,976) | Uncontested | — |
| 2012 | Marc W. Butler 68.1% (26,685) | Joseph Chilelli 31.9% (12,503) | 36.2pts |
| 2010 | Addie J. Russell 55.3% (18,341) | David W. Forsythe 44.7% (14,809) | 10.6pts |
| 2008 | Addie Jenne Russell 58.8% (24,843) | Robert W. Cantwell, III 41.2% (17,423) | 17.6pts |
| 2006 | Darrel J. Aubertine 100.0% (22,114) | Uncontested | — |
| 2004 | Darrel J. Aubertine 65.3% (29,912) | Scott A. Gray 34.7% (15,898) | 30.6pts |
| 2002 | Darrel J. Aubertine 50.4% (17,494) | Patricia A. Ritchie 46.5% (16,134) | ⚡ 3.9pts |
| 2000 | Michael J. Bragman 100.0% (38,773) | Uncontested | — |
| 1998 | Michael J. Bragman 78.9% (30,517) | Steven C. Kempisty 17.0% (6,561) | 61.9pts |
| 1996 | Michael J. Bragman 77.7% (37,714) | Damian Ulatowski 22.3% (10,814) | 55.4pts |
Primary Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 (Republican) | Robert J. Smullen 57.8% (4,499) | Patrick Vincent 42.2% (3,279) | 15.6pts |
| 2018 (Conservative) | Robert J. Smullen 53.3% (98) | Patrick Vincent 46.7% (86) | ⚡ 6.6pts |
| 2016 (Republican) | Marc W. Butler 66.0% (5,595) | Patrick Vincent 34.0% (2,877) | 32.0pts |
| 2002 (Republican) | Patricia A. Ritchie 45.4% (2,878) | David A. Renzi 29.0% (1,839) | 16.4pts |
| 2002 (Green) | Darrel J. Aubertine 42.9% (3) | Patricia Ritchie 14.3% (1) | 28.6pts |
Special Elections
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | William E. Sanford 54.8% (8,684) | Lee J. Plavoukos 45.2% (7,172) | ⚡ 9.6pts |
Source: NYS Board of Elections certified results. ⚡ = margin under 10 pts. District history reflects 2022 redistricted boundaries.
Vulnerability Index AD-118
Base lean: R+34
- Limited contested election data — registration lean used as primary signal
- Ran uncontested in most recent election
Scenario model: ±5pt national environment shift applied to district base lean (R+34). Base lean blends voter registration (40%) with recent contested general election margins (60%), using up to the last 4 general elections with margins under 40 points. Ratings: Safe D/R = 15+ pts, Likely = 8–14 pts, Lean = 3–7 pts, Toss-up = within 2 pts (Assembly districts are smaller and more homogeneous than Senate districts, so tighter thresholds are used). Generic ballot from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), as of 5/21/2026. Not a prediction — reflects structural competitiveness under different cycle environments.
District 118 Profile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2024).
Voter Registration
Demographics
Commute Mode
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates (2024). Race and ethnicity figures may not sum to 100% — Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity category that overlaps with racial groups.
Lobbying Activity
No lobbying disclosures on record for this member in the available dataset.
Source: NY Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government via data.ny.gov.