Hub State Senate Swing Analysis
Partisan Lean
D+8
Registered Voters
216,118
Enrolled D / R
34.2% / 25.7%
D Overperformance
+37.4 pts
Turnout (2024)
69.2%
Results shown are certified NYSBOE General and Special elections under current (post-2022) district boundaries. Overperformance = Democratic vote share minus partisan lean (D +37.4pts vs. D+8 registration). NY fusion voting: per-line vote totals are shown where available.
2024 General 9.3% margin 69.2% turnout D share: 45.4%
Candidate Votes Party Lines Share
Jake Ashby R 81,727 Republican: 69,824 · Conservative: 11,903 54.6%
Alvin Gamble D 67,824 Democratic: 67,824 45.4%
Total 149,551 of 216,118 registered (69.2% turnout)
2022 General 5.8% margin 54.9% turnout D share: 47.1%
Candidate Votes Party Lines Share
Jacob C. Ashby R 62,769 Republican: 52,818 · Conservative: 9,951 52.9%
Andrea Smyth D 55,935 Democratic: 50,510 · Working Families: 5,425 47.1%
Total 118,704 of 216,118 registered (54.9% turnout)