Swing Analysis — State Senate
How to read this table:
Swing = change in Democratic vote share from 2022 to 2024 General. Positive (blue) = moved toward Democrats; negative (red) = moved toward Republicans.
Overperformance = 2024 Democratic share minus the district's partisan lean (registration-based). Positive = Democrats outran their registration advantage.
Only districts with certified results in both years under current (post-2022) boundaries are shown.
38 of 63 districts had two-party contests in both years
·
24 moved toward D
·
14 moved toward R
Why not all 63 districts?
Swing requires a two-party contest in both years — otherwise the shift reflects candidate availability, not voter preference.
16 districts had no major-party opposition in either year.
6 gained a Republican challenger in 2024 for the first time (no 2022 baseline).
3 had no Democratic candidate in 2024 (opponent withdrew).
All districts appear in the sections below.
| District | Senator | Partisan Lean | 2022 D% | 2024 D% | Swing | Overperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-16 | John C. Liu D | D+37 | 57.7% | 79.8% | +22.1 | +42.8 |
| SD-15 | Joseph P. Addabbo, Jr. D | D+38 | 57.3% | 76.9% | +19.6 | +38.9 |
| SD-63 | April N. McCants-Baskin D | D+26 | 82.8% | 66.4% | -16.4 | +40.4 |
| SD-9 | Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick R | D+11 | 43.9% | 32.5% | -11.4 | +21.5 |
| SD-47 | Brad Hoylman-Sigal D | D+65 | 93.3% | 84.0% | -9.3 | +19.0 |
| SD-48 | Rachel May D | D+10 | 50.3% | 58.5% | +8.2 | +48.5 |
| SD-52 | Lea Webb D | D+13 | 51.1% | 57.5% | +6.4 | +44.5 |
| SD-41 | Michelle Hinchey D | D+12 | 52.7% | 58.6% | +5.9 | +46.6 |
| SD-17 | Steve Chan R | D+36 | 50.7% | 45.1% | -5.6 | +9.1 |
| SD-4 | Monica R. Martinez D | D+22 | 51.4% | 56.5% | +5.1 | +34.5 |
| SD-61 | Sean M. Ryan D | D+21 | 56.7% | 61.8% | +5.1 | +40.8 |
| SD-56 | Jeremy A. Cooney D | D+22 | 54.2% | 58.9% | +4.7 | +36.9 |
| SD-23 | Jessica Scarcella-Spanton D | D+29 | 50.9% | 55.2% | +4.3 | +26.2 |
| SD-32 | Luis R. Sepulveda D | D+66 | 83.3% | 79.2% | -4.1 | +13.2 |
| SD-42 | James G. Skoufis D | D+5 | 50.7% | 54.5% | +3.8 | +49.5 |
| SD-3 | Dean Murray R | R+2 | 34.9% | 38.5% | +3.6 | +40.5 |
| SD-55 | Samra G. Brouk D | D+19 | 58.4% | 61.6% | +3.2 | +42.6 |
| SD-1 | Anthony H. Palumbo R | D+2 | 44.0% | 47.1% | +3.1 | +45.1 |
| SD-51 | Peter Oberacker R | R+8 | 37.6% | 40.6% | +3.0 | +48.6 |
| SD-34 | Nathalia Fernandez D | D+51 | 65.2% | 67.6% | +2.4 | +16.6 |
| SD-39 | Rob Rolison R | D+10 | 46.9% | 49.3% | +2.4 | +39.3 |
| SD-11 | Toby Ann Stavisky D | D+39 | 56.7% | 54.4% | -2.3 | +15.4 |
| SD-8 | Alexis Weik R | R+14 | 30.7% | 32.8% | +2.1 | +46.8 |
| SD-54 | Pamela A. Helming R | R+12 | 33.5% | 35.5% | +2.0 | +47.5 |
| SD-7 | Jack M. Martins R | D+6 | 46.8% | 44.8% | -2.0 | +38.8 |
| SD-43 | Jake Ashby R | D+8 | 47.1% | 45.4% | -1.7 | +37.4 |
| SD-6 | Siela A. Bynoe D | D+25 | 59.2% | 60.9% | +1.7 | +35.9 |
| SD-28 | Liz Krueger D | D+50 | 77.6% | 76.0% | -1.6 | +26.0 |
| SD-35 | Andrea Stewart-Cousins D | D+35 | 64.8% | 66.2% | +1.4 | +31.2 |
| SD-44 | James N. Tedisco R | D+2 | 43.5% | 42.1% | -1.4 | +40.1 |
| SD-38 | William J. Weber, Jr. R | D+19 | 48.4% | 47.6% | -0.8 | +28.6 |
| SD-46 | Patricia A. Fahy D | D+22 | 55.1% | 55.9% | +0.8 | +33.9 |
| SD-37 | Shelley B. Mayer D | D+25 | 61.1% | 61.8% | +0.7 | +36.8 |
| SD-5 | Steven D. Rhoads R | R+3 | 39.2% | 38.7% | -0.5 | +41.7 |
| SD-50 | Christopher J. Ryan D | R+2 | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 | +52.5 |
| SD-2 | Mario R. Mattera R | R+3 | 42.1% | 41.7% | -0.4 | +44.7 |
| SD-26 | Andrew S. Gounardes D | D+59 | 79.2% | 78.8% | -0.4 | +19.8 |
| SD-40 | Peter B. Harckham D | D+12 | 53.4% | 53.6% | +0.2 | +41.6 |
New Republican challengers in 2024 (no 2022 baseline) — 6 districts
These districts had no Republican candidate in 2022. A Republican ran in 2024 for the first time, so there is no prior result to compare against.
| District | Senator | Partisan Lean | 2022 D% | 2024 D% | Swing | Overperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-10 | James Sanders Jr. D | D+57 | 100.0% | 71.1% | Uncontested | +14.1 |
| SD-12 | Michael N. Gianaris D | D+47 | 100.0% | 67.6% | Uncontested | +20.6 |
| SD-29 | Jose M. Serrano D | D+67 | 100.0% | 81.9% | Uncontested | +14.9 |
| SD-33 | J. Gustavo Rivera D | D+60 | 100.0% | 74.9% | Uncontested | +14.9 |
| SD-36 | Jamaal T. Bailey D | D+67 | 100.0% | 91.6% | Uncontested | +24.6 |
| SD-53 | Joseph A. Griffo R | R+12 | 0.0% | 29.8% | Uncontested | +41.8 |
No Democratic candidate in 2024 — 3 districts
Democrats fielded a candidate in 2022 but not 2024. The seat is included below for context but swing cannot be computed.
| District | Senator | Partisan Lean | 2022 D% | 2024 D% | Swing | Overperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-31 | Robert Jackson D | D+68 | 85.3% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +32.0 |
| SD-45 | Daniel G. Stec R | R+6 | 39.8% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +6.0 |
| SD-57 | George M. Borrello R | R+18 | 26.9% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +18.0 |
Uncontested in both years — no major-party opposition — 16 districts
No meaningful two-party contest in either 2022 or 2024. Overperformance shown where applicable.
| District | Senator | Partisan Lean | 2022 D% | 2024 D% | Swing | Overperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-13 | Jessica Ramos D | D+53 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +47.0 |
| SD-14 | Leroy G. Comrie, Jr. D | D+63 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +37.0 |
| SD-18 | Julia Salazar D | D+70 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +30.0 |
| SD-19 | Roxanne J. Persaud D | D+70 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +30.0 |
| SD-20 | Zellnor Y. Myrie D | D+76 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +24.0 |
| SD-21 | Kevin S. Parker D | D+64 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +36.0 |
| SD-22 | Simcha Felder D | D+30 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +70.0 |
| SD-24 | Andrew J. Lanza R | R+8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +8.0 |
| SD-25 | Jabari Brisport D | D+77 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +23.0 |
| SD-27 | Brian Kavanagh D | D+60 | 95.9% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +40.0 |
| SD-30 | Cordell Cleare D | D+75 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +25.0 |
| SD-49 | Mark C. Walczyk R | R+26 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +26.0 |
| SD-58 | Thomas Fellers O'Mara R | R+21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +21.0 |
| SD-59 | Kristen Gonzalez D | D+60 | 100.0% | 100.0% | Uncontested | +40.0 |
| SD-60 | Patrick M. Gallivan R | R+3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +3.0 |
| SD-62 | Robert G. Ortt R | R+7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Uncontested | +7.0 |