Hub State Senate Swing Analysis
Partisan Lean
R+2
Registered Voters
221,470
Enrolled D / R
31.1% / 32.7%
D Overperformance
+52.5 pts
Turnout (2024)
73.1%
Results shown are certified NYSBOE General and Special elections under current (post-2022) district boundaries. Overperformance = Democratic vote share minus partisan lean (D +52.5pts vs. R+2 registration). NY fusion voting: per-line vote totals are shown where available.
2024 General 0.9% margin 73.1% turnout D share: 50.5%
Candidate Votes Party Lines Share
Christopher J. Ryan D 81,673 Democratic: 75,307 · Working Families: 6,366 50.5%
Nick Paro R 80,163 Republican: 70,277 · Conservative: 9,886 49.5%
Total 161,836 of 221,470 registered (73.1% turnout)
2022 General 0.0% margin 55.6% turnout D share: 50.0%
Candidate Votes Party Lines Share
John W. Mannion D 61,579 Democratic: 57,712 · Working Families: 3,867 50.0%
Rebecca Shiroff R 61,569 Republican: 52,570 · Conservative: 8,999 50.0%
Total 123,148 of 221,470 registered (55.6% turnout)