NYC 2025 Primary — RCV Analytics
Cross-race analysis of 38 contests ·
4,321,937 ballots ·
Source: NYC BOE Cast Vote Records
Note on 2-candidate races: 18 of 38 contests
had only 2 candidates on the ballot — these races produce no RCV dynamics (no eliminations, no vote transfers,
and 0 exhausted ballots by definition). They are included in aggregate totals but flagged below where they
may skew comparisons. RCV mechanics only applied to the remaining
20 multi-candidate contests.
Contests
38
Ballots Cast in Contest
4,321,937
Exhausted Ballots
136,681
(3.2%)
Votes Transferred
305,795
RCV lets voters rank up to 5 candidates. The mandate gap is the difference
between a winner's share of active ballots (excluding exhausted) and their share
of all ballots cast in the contest. A large mandate gap means many voters' preferences
stopped counting before the final round. The transfer loyalty rate measures
what share of an eliminated candidate's voters ranked a particular candidate next —
a proxy for coalition alignment.
The Mandate Gap — Winners' True Share of All Ballots
Each winner's share of active ballots (the RCV headline number) vs. their share of
all ballots cast in the contest (including exhausted). The gap is filled by voters
whose preferences stopped counting before the final round.
Winners are sorted weakest mandate first.
Closest Races — Final-Round Margins
| Contest | Winner | Runner-Up | Margin | Margin (pts of active) | Exhausted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Council Member · 47th Council District Brooklyn | George Sarantopoulos R | Richie Barsamian | 19 Closest | 0.8% | — |
| Council Member · 30th Council District Queens | Phil Wong D | Paul Pogozelski | 320 | 3.0% | 1,923 Exceeds margin |
| Council Member · 21st Council District Queens | Shanel Thomas-Henry D | Erycka Montoya | 369 | 6.3% | 1,928 Exceeds margin |
| Council Member · 13th Council District Bronx | Shirley Aldebol D | Jacqueline J. Torres | 1,006 | 12.0% | 2,966 Exceeds margin |
| Council Member · 48th Council District Brooklyn | Inna Vernikov R | Ari Kagan | 1,269 | 31.6% | — |
| Council Member · 4th Council District Manhattan | Virginia Maloney D | Vanessa Aronson | 1,535 | 6.2% | 4,940 Exceeds margin |
| Council Member · 17th Council District Bronx | Justin E. Sanchez D | Antirson R. Ortiz | 1,763 | 24.1% | 1,921 Exceeds margin |
| Council Member · 28th Council District Queens | Ty Hankerson D | Japneet Singh | 1,948 | 17.5% | 2,995 Exceeds margin |
Borough Voting Culture — How Deeply Did Voters Rank?
Voters are not required to rank all 5 candidates. This section compares ranking behavior
across boroughs — revealing where voters engaged most deeply with RCV and where single-ranking
was most common. Higher single-ranking correlates with higher exhaustion risk.
Note: boroughs with many 2-candidate races will show artificially high single-ranking
rates — ranking only one candidate is fully rational when only two appear on the ballot.
Queens
5 races
60,951 ballots
2 two-cand.
Manhattan
13 races
3,511,276 ballots
4 two-cand.
Bronx
7 races
182,981 ballots
4 two-cand.
Brooklyn
11 races
550,411 ballots
8 two-cand.
Staten Island
2 races
16,318 ballots
By Office Type
| Office | Races | Ballots | Exhaustion Rate | Single-Ranked | Used All 5 | Avg Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayor | 1 | 1,073,331 | 5.2% | 20.7% | 48.9% | 10.0 |
| Comptroller 1/2 two-cand. | 2 | 993,489 | 3.9% | 50.7% | 1.2% | 1.5 |
| Public Advocate | 1 | 954,276 | 0% | 59.2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Borough President 2/3 two-cand. | 3 | 708,479 | 2.0% | 59.3% | 0% | 1.3 |
| Council Member 15/31 two-cand. | 31 | 592,362 | 4.8% | 56.5% | 5.0% | 2.0 |
Largest Vote Transfers — Coalition in Action
When a candidate is eliminated, their supporters' ballots transfer to whoever they ranked next.
These are the largest single transfers across all 38 contests.
Loyalty % = share of the eliminated candidate's total votes that went to this recipient.
| Contest | From (eliminated) | To | Votes | Loyalty % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Brad Lander | Zohran Kwame Mamdani ✓ Winner | 85,463 | 56.2% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Brad Lander | Andrew M. Cuomo | 31,632 | 20.8% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Adrienne E. Adams | Brad Lander | 16,617 | 31.0% |
| Comptroller · Citywide Manhattan | Kevin S. Parker | Mark D. Levine ✓ Winner | 16,589 | 21.8% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Adrienne E. Adams | Andrew M. Cuomo | 12,948 | 24.1% |
| Comptroller · Citywide Manhattan | Kevin S. Parker | Justin Brannan | 12,769 | 16.8% |
| Borough President · New York Manhattan | Calvin D. Sun | Keith Powers | 12,014 | 34.9% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Adrienne E. Adams | Zohran Kwame Mamdani ✓ Winner | 11,731 | 21.9% |
| Comptroller · Citywide Manhattan | Kevin S. Parker | Ismael Malave Perez | 8,539 | 11.2% |
| Borough President · New York Manhattan | Calvin D. Sun | Brad Hoylman-Sigal ✓ Winner | 8,179 | 23.7% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Scott M. Stringer | Brad Lander | 6,916 | 32.0% |
| Mayor · Citywide Manhattan | Scott M. Stringer | Andrew M. Cuomo | 5,095 | 23.5% |